再融资盈亏平衡导航员

安装指南

1. ClawHub CLI 从源直接安装技能的最快方式。
   npx clawhub@latest install refi-break-even-ranger
2. 手动安装 将技能文件夹复制到以下位置之一
   全局模式
   ~/.openclaw/skills/
   工作区
   /skills/
   优先级：工作区 > 本地 > 内置
3. 提示词安装 将此提示词复制到 OpenClaw 即可自动安装。
   请帮我使用 Clawhub 安装 refi-break-even-ranger。如果尚未安装 Clawhub，请先安装（npm i -g clawhub）。
   更倾向于下载？
   获取包含原生技能文件的ZIP压缩包。
   下载技能 (.zip)

什么是

再融资盈亏平衡导航员是一项房贷再融资分析技能，可计算每月还款节省金额、盈亏平衡所需月数、已付利息、净值变化，以及在您预计保留贷款期间的净节省金额。它不会只依赖宣传利率或每月节省金额，而是使用摊销计算和前期成本来比较当前房贷与再融资报价。
这项技能有助于揭示常见的再融资陷阱，包括搬家后才收回交割成本、重设30年摊销期限、为较低利率支付点数，以及通过套现改变贷款金额。作为 Openclaw Skills 的一部分，它还可以按照您选择的持有期限内的净节省金额，对多家贷款机构的报价进行排序。

应用场景

判断对于您预计的持有时间而言，宣传中的较低利率是否让再融资值得考虑。
检查交割成本和点数是否能在计划搬家或出售前收回。
根据持有期限内的净节省金额，比较利率、点数和交割成本各不相同的贷款机构报价。
将15年或20年期再融资与新的30年期贷款进行比较。
检查套现再融资对还款额和贷款余额的影响。
找出再融资何时可能降低每月还款额，却增加利息成本或减缓净值增长。

工作原理

收集当前贷款余额、利率、本金和利息月供、剩余还款期数、再融资报价条款、前期成本，以及预计持有期限。
对单个报价运行 analyze，计算新月供、每月节省金额、盈亏平衡期，以及所选持有期限内的贷款结果。
将盈亏平衡期与您预计保留贷款的月数进行比较；届时仍未收回的成本可能意味着再融资并不适合您。
在相同持有期限下，查看两笔贷款已付利息、净值累积和扣除前期成本后的净节省金额。这项比较有助于揭示重设摊销期限的影响。
对于多份报价，准备一个 JSON 列表并运行 compare，按您所选持有期限内的净节省金额对报价排序。
如果再融资看起来值得考虑，也请测试较短期限，以了解月供金额、贷款期限和利息之间的权衡。

配置指南

这项技能使用 Python 3 脚本 scripts/refi_ranger.py，并包含有关再融资决策和摊销计算的参考指南。在技能目录中，使用您自己的贷款和报价详情运行分析：
python3 scripts/refi_ranger.py analyze --balance 280000 --current-rate 6.5 --current-payment 1768 --new-rate 5.25 --term 30 --closing 4200 --points 0.5 --horizon-years 7
请用准确数据替换示例数值。务必如实填写预计持有期限；结果取决于您预计保留贷款的时间。若要比较多家贷款机构，请按脚本接受的格式准备 JSON 列表，并使用其 compare 命令。提供的技能文件未指定其他安装或配置步骤。

数据架构

这项技能通过命令行参数为 analyze 提供贷款和报价输入，或为 compare 提供报价 JSON 列表。
数据组 技能中说明的字段
当前房贷 贷款余额、利率、本金和利息月供，以及剩余还款期数
再融资报价 利率、贷款期限、交割成本和点数
借款人持有期限 预计出售、搬家或以其他方式结清贷款前的年数
计算结果 新月供、每月节省金额、盈亏平衡月数、持有期限内的利息、扣除前期成本后的持有期限净节省金额、净值累积差额，以及结论
技能文件包括 scripts/refi_ranger.py、references/refi-decision-guide.md 和 references/amortization-math.md。决策指南涵盖持有期限规划、PMI 与贷款期限的相互影响、套现考量、协商和利率比价；数学参考资料则介绍公式、计算示例、净值曲线和点数定价。提供的文件未指定输出文件格式或持久化数据存储。

高级特性

按借款人选择的持有期限内的净节省金额对多家贷款机构的报价进行排序，让利率与点数之间的权衡更易比较。
在相同持有期限下比较两笔贷款的摊销和净值结果，揭示重设贷款期限的成本。
支持不同的再融资期限，包括评估15年或20年等较短期限。
在分析流程中纳入套现再融资导致的贷款金额变化。
当还款额不足以覆盖利息时，标示负摊销。
给出实用结论：REFI、STAY 或 ONLY-IF-YOU-STAY。
提供有关 PMI、融资支付的交割成本、利率比价窗口、协商筹码和再融资决策陷阱的参考资料。

name: refi-break-even-ranger description: "Use when evaluating a mortgage refinance — computes true break-even months from closing costs and points vs monthly savings, net lifetime saving at your actual stay-horizon, compares multiple lender offers side by side, and handles cash-out and term changes; guards against the two classic refi traps (resetting the 30-year clock, ignoring how long you'll keep the loan)." version: 1.0.0
author: Denis Voronin
license: MIT
tags: [mortgage, refinance, break-even, personal-finance, loans]

Refi Break-Even Ranger

Overview

Refinance decisions look simple and aren't. The advertised math ("save $220/month!") hides four traps: (1) closing costs and points must be recovered before you sell or move — break-even vs your actual horizon; (2) refinancing a 7-year-old loan into a new 30-year loan RESETS amortization, so lower rate ≠ lower lifetime interest; (3) the lowest rate often carries the highest upfront costs, so offer comparison must be net, not headline rate; (4) cash-out changes the loan amount and everything downstream.

This skill runs the real amortization math for both loans to a common horizon and returns: monthly savings, break-even months, interest paid over the horizon by each loan, net saving after upfront costs, equity-build delta, and a plain verdict (REFI / STAY / ONLY-IF-YOU-STAY). compare ranks multiple lender offers by net horizon saving — which routinely flips the "obvious" winner.

When to Use

"Rates dropped — should I refinance?" (any rate-move question)
"This lender says I'll save $200/month with $5,600 in costs — good deal?"
Comparing 3 lender offers with different rates/points/closing costs.
"Should I refi into a 15-year instead of another 30?"
Cash-out refi vs HELOC sanity check (payment math side).
"I might move in 2-3 years — does refinancing still make sense?"

Don't use for: purchase-mortgage shopping (different cost structure), reverse mortgages, or investment-property DSCR analysis (needs tax/rates context beyond scope).

How It Works — Numbered Steps
Gather: current balance, rate, monthly payment (P&I), payments remaining; the offer's rate, term, closing costs, points; and your honest stay-horizon in years.
Run one offer: python3 scripts/refi_ranger.py analyze --balance 280000 --current-rate 6.5 --current-payment 1768 --new-rate 5.25 --term 30 --closing 4200 --points 0.5 --horizon-years 7
Read BREAK-EVEN first: if it exceeds your horizon months, you LOSE money — verdict says STAY.
Read NET SAVING OVER HORIZON: the honest number — interest delta minus upfront costs at YOUR horizon, not the full term.
For multiple offers, build a JSON list and run compare — it ranks by net horizon saving and exposes the rate-vs-points tradeoff.

If the verdict is REFI, also price the same rate at 15/20-year terms (--term 15) — sometimes the same payment buys a far shorter clock.

The Math (what the tool does)
Amortizing payment: P·r / (1 − (1+r)^−n) — same as lenders use.
Break-even = (closing + points·loan) / monthly savings.
Horizon comparison: run BOTH loans' amortization for horizon months; net saving = (current payments − current equity) − (new payments − new equity + upfront). This catches the clock-reset trap: a new 30-year loan amortizes slowly at first, so equity-build matters.
Negative amortization guard: if a payment can't cover interest, the tool flags instead of silently computing nonsense.

Common Pitfalls

Break-even beyond the horizon. The #1 mistake: 40-month break-even with a 24-month stay = guaranteed loss. Always supply --horizon-years.
The 30-year reset. Dropping from 6.5% to 5.25% but restarting amortization at year 7 can still cost MORE lifetime interest if you keep paying for 23 more years. The horizon math exposes this.
Chasing headline rate. 4.99% with 1.5 points + high closing often loses to 5.375% with near-zero costs on an honest horizon — the compare table shows this in one line.
Forgetting PMI. If refi drops below 20% equity threshold changes PMI status, that's ±$100-300/month not in the headline — add it to closing or mentally to savings.
Rolling costs into the loan. Financed closing costs earn interest for 30 years; the tool treats them as upfront — if you finance them, your effective break-even stretches.
Extending term to "save". A 30→30 refi at lower rate saves; a 30→30 at same rate with 3 years elapsed "saves" monthly only by re-lengthening the loan. Compare terms honestly.
Ignoring rate-shop window. Multiple mortgage applications within a ~14-45 day window count as ONE credit inquiry — get all offers inside it.

Example

Borrower: balance $280k @ 6.5%, paying $1,768/mo, ~7 years left on the job,
maybe moving in ~7 years... but let's check 2 years too.

$ refi_ranger.py analyze --balance 280000 --current-rate 6.5 --current-payment 1768
--new-rate 5.25 --term 30 --closing 4200 --points 0.5 --horizon-years 7 New payment $1,546 → saves $221.83/mo; upfront $5,600
Break-even: 25 months. Interest over 84 mo: $121,867 → $97,360
NET SAVING over horizon: $7,160 → REFI (only if you stay 25+ months)

Same offer, 2-year horizon: verdict flips to STAY (−$11,162).

Three lenders: compare ranks CU B 5.375%/$2,500 closing FIRST (net $9,039)
above Bank C's flashy 4.99%/$10,700 (net $4,536) — points eat the win.

References

references/refi-decision-guide.md — the decision framework, horizon honesty, PMI/term interactions, cash-out chapter, negotiation levers, and the rate-shop credit-window rule.
references/amortization-math.md — formulas, worked examples, clock-reset trap quantified, equity curves, and how points pricing maps to break-even.
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